Volume vs Winrate – Can’t I have both?

So I was very excited about poker again and full of expectations, I decided to push it a little and play a lot more hands than normal. I usually play 500-1000 hands but I was feeling confident so on Wednesday I played about 3400 hands. Well, it was a disaster, I was down 4 buy ins. The next day and every day since I’ve just been playing my normal casual amount and everything has been great – in fact it feels like I can’t lose (Today I played 90 hands and am up 2.5 buy ins). I’m also going to go over those 3400 hands and figure out how much of that is bad play vs bad luck. I know I made a bad call early and it put me on tilt. That affected every hand I played after that. I took some bad beats – got more frustrated but kept going. I’m usually good with bad beats but when I make a mistake it affects me.

Thankfully, I’m still on track and the bankroll has bounced back. It just makes you realize that poker WILL kick your ass, if you are not on top of things.

I still feel like I’m being lazy by not putting in a lot of hands. Then part of me thinks, why bother when playing fewer hands is so profitable for me. I might have to start adding volume gradually to maintain my winrate, and learn to quit when things aren’t going well so it doesn’t snowball into a disaster. Arhhh, its never easy, is it?

Wow, what happened to the plan

As you can see no updates in awhile. Everything has been going well and I am still playing but I have been playing some sit n gos as well. This is the worst thing I can possibly do as the variance is really bad in those. So its risky for my bankroll. I don’t even know why I play them. So from now on no sit n gos. I will focus on building my bankroll up to $500. Currently my bankroll is at $250, and I’m playing .05/.10 NL.

Here’s a hand that put me on tilt today:

OK, I cant find the hand right now. But I hit a set on the flop with pocket fours. I bet, get one caller, the turn is some low card so I figure it doesn’t help the other player… WRONG. Villian had 67 offsuit and hit a straight!!! I tilted pretty bad after that one but kept playing OK. I just don’t understand how some people can call pre-flop raises with 67o, but thats what happens.

Goals for June:

- get pokertracker (the trial expired & I need to purchase it)

- play more hands (not sure how many)

- do not play ant sit n gos, STICK TO THE PLAN!!!

- hit $500 and move up to .10/.25

I don’t have pokertracker at the moment so here’s a screen grab of my winrates according to pokertableratings:

Still at it

Well, march 29th was a horrendous day, my pocket aces were busted by the stupidest hands (like J6o). I did manage to pull out of it though. I think I even learnt something from it. What’s the point of losing $30 then making $40. I  hate to see such big swings in my graph, and I’m going to try to prevent that from happening somehow. For me I think it means staying focused, not having winners tilt  and getting complacent. Every situation is different – I can’t just assume my aces will win – I have to make sure they win.

My biggest losing hand this week is AA. This either means I  have a really big leak or I’m playing really well and its just a bad beat. In a way its both – there’s always something to work on poker’s a funny game that way.

So my new goal is to reduce the swings in my play. My bankroll is currently at $250, and my winrate is at 3.5bb/100. Here’s a graph:

Upswing

So I just had a very good session(up 3 buy-ins). I had great cards and everything held up. I think working on the two things I mentioned in my previous post really helped. Up until now I have not been putting in a lot of volume, because I wasn’t too sure I was playing well enough. Now I think I am ready to play a lot of hands – I feel like a well oiled machine. I also feel like I need to see more hands since I’m folding a lot more, it will keep me from getting bored. I’m currently running at 3bb/100 at 5nl – not bad but I know I can do better.

Working on my game

The last few days have been really swingy again. I am down 2 buyins since my last post. This time I’m not so sure that its all just bad luck. I’m learning that good luck is not putting yourself in risky situations to begin with. So I’ve been working on improving my play.

One of thing that’s been getting me in trouble is how to respond to 3bets. To be honest, I had no idea what 3betting was or what it meant, no one does it at 2nl. So imagine my surprise when my pocket kings run into pocket aces. I know this could be considered bad luck, but when the tightest guy at the table starts betting like a maniac, its a huge sign that he has me beat. I’ve even called 3bets with AK -which is never pretty. I’ve been trying to read up on this on forums like 2+2, but I don’t really feel like I have a handle on it, so for now I’m going to just fold, and then fold some more. Not sure if I’ll be able to fold kings but AK definitely.

The other thing I’m working on is hand selection and positional awareness. These concepts are pretty straightforward, but applying it requires a lot of discipline. Here’s an example you get 99, or ATs in first position, should you lay it? Tempting… but then what do you do if everyone calls or 3bets. Then you’re a sitting duck because, chances are someone has you beat. Trouble is, when you’re card dead those cards will look very appealing. So I find I need a constant reminder of what to play when. I have a lot of trouble with proper hand selection right after a bad beat. So this is a huge one for me, especially since I was profiting at 43% vpip at 2nl – that would be unheard of at this level.

May as well share me graph:

Moving up a Level

It took a while but I am finally ready to move up to 5nl for good. It was a big adjustment but I think I have a handle on things now. I haven’t been playing a lot of hands because I wanted to focus on the adjustment. The big thing was tightening up pre-flop. The other big thing is being able to figure out what other peoples ranges are.

One thing I noticed at first was that I was getting rivered a lot, for instance I’d hit a set on the flop, slowplay it (or just bet a small amount), then get beat by the river by a flush/straight. Slowplaying always backfired so I started being more aggressive. As soon as I did this things turned around for me.

I’m feeling comfortable with my play at the new level so I’ll just keep playing until my bankroll is at $300 – which shouldn’t take too long – then I’ll move up to 10nl. Here’s a graph of all my hands at .02/.05 since march 1st:

Rocky start

So against my better judgment I have been playing at .02/.05 nl. My bankroll took a hit and I am trying to adjust to the new level. Obviously, players are not making as many huge mistakes. The main thing for me to do is tighten up my range. I was limping in and speculating a lot at the penny tables, and now its time to cut that out. I felt really shaky at first – like I was out of my league – but looking back at the hands I realized I was just unlucky, so I just kept at it, even though I was losing money. Here’s a graph for the month so far, with 3500 hands at .05NL and the rest at .02NL:

How not to play pocket kings

I thought I’d post this hand because I really misplayed it and it was a costly mistake. Its one of those hands that sticks with you – so I think that means I learned something from it.
My biggest pot lost

This hand came after a few big wins so it really sucked to lose it all in this way. I got too cocky, is this what they mean by winners tilt. In fact this was a disturbing trend in my play, it just kept happening and I couldn’t figure it out. The size of this pot shocked me into figuring it out. I think avoiding this boils down to always staying cautious and protective of your chips, even when you’re on a heater. Anything can happen.

Quick Update

Things are going well. My win rate doubled compared to last week. I’m worried that its variance – or could it be that I’m getting better at this? Tough to say – I just started -and there are a lot of bad players at .01/.02 nl. I’ve upped my aggression level against the really bad players – so thats probably why it has doubled.

I can not wait to move up a level. I am even toying with the idea of moving up when my bankroll reaches $150. This could backfire though so I don’t think I will. I’ll probably just take a few shots at the new level, but keep playing mostly at my current level. So even though I can’t wait – I have to be patient. The last thing I need is to lose a big chunk of it after such a good start.

I suppose a graph is in order, this is from Feb 18 – Feb 25:

Catching the Big Fish

I had a revelation the other day, this doesn’t have to be difficult, as long as you can sit beside a big fish. I tripled up off this poor sap, here’s the final hand:

K3 Suited UTG and proud of it- K3s vs 72o

I know there are lots of players like this at the micros, but to be honest, I’ve always been afraid of them. I usually lose a lot of money against them, go on tilt and lose even more. Here’s an example:

On Tilt on account of the Lucky Fish – JJ vs 83s

That second hand was completely avoidable. I knew my big hands weren’t holding up and instead of just leaving – I tried to recoup my losses, tilted and went all in when I knew he/she had me.

The lesson here is:

• realize they are playing any two cards (72, 83, 94)
• you can bend the rules a little (like K3s utg)
• realize that they can still get lucky with any two
• leave if they are getting lucky and stay if they aren’t
• do not bluff/c-bet, and respect their raises
• leave if they make you tilt
• leave if your good hands aren’t holding up

I know a lot of people think its easy to play against an any two range, but I find its not. You can’t put them on a hand so you are risking a lot unless you have the nuts. You may be the better player but the only way to win against them is if you hit your flops. Don’t get frustrated when this doesn’t happen and start using fancy plays against them, and don’t try to make them fold – THEY WON’T. If they are getting lucky don’t go all in unless you know you have them. Here’s an example, this person was terrorizing everyone, the size of their stack told me they were getting lucky and I was about to leave, then this happened:

Flopped Four of a Kind – 44 vs 9-10

I don’t know if its easier, or harder playing these Big Fish – but the chips are really flying so be careful.